Bruce Sterling, the author of some incredible cyberpunk/ science fiction novels, doesn’t think there’ll be a lot of blogs around come another 10 years. At the recent SXSW (South by SouthWest) conference, he pointed out that just because there are many millions of blogs doesn’t mean any of them have to be any good. He’s quoted as saying
I don’t think there will be that many of them around in 10 years. I think they are a passing thing.
Truth be told, I was surprised, two years ago, when blogs started becoming a phenomenon (as far as I’m aware). Back in the early to mid-90s, while publishing a monthly print rag, my research found studies by the publishing industry that suggested that North American males, for example, simply didn’t care for reading as an activity. Females in Canada and the US were more likely to read books and magazines than males. The exception would be girly mags and sports mags, and possibly specific genres of novels.
Blogs changed all that, or so one would think. Are people, particularly males, actually reading more on the Internet than previous generations might have in print? Or are they just browsing blogs? If the latter, then maybe what Sterling says is true. I’ll be honest: I used to read a phenomenal amount of printed matter weekly. But the Internet seems to have ruined my ability to read lengthy documents online, and dissolved my interest in still reading printed matter. I can no longer read full books in any form – something I find deeply disturbing. And yet, I subscribe to over 1000 blogs and try to visit them at least once a month, if not daily. That’s because I have to, as part of my new career as a “pro” blogger.
So am I worried about Sterling’s prediction? Not at all. I’m a fan of his novels, but feel that if blogging goes on for another ten years (having already been around for close to ten years now), it will have “touched” a substantial demographic of the world by then and become a rather persistent facet of world culture.
Even if he’s right, there are other types of online content that tomorrow’s bloggers can shift focus to. Resource content will always be valuable on the Internet (which isn’t going away). Then there’s the next wave of the web, the Semantic Web, which will mark the effort to attach meaning and structure to content in a way that both humans and machines will benefit. Machines will be able to extract data for complex queries for specific information, such as finding all homes for sale in the US Midwest, less than $200,000 and within 5 miles of a public school.
Right now, this sort of information exists, but is hidden within the Invisible Web. I’m betting that blogs that adapt to the ideals of the Semantic Web will be those that remain in ten years.
Originally posted on March 15, 2007 @ 11:00 pm
Knell, not knoll. Unless you think blogs are going to get shot in Dallas from on top of a small hillock.
Doh!! Thanks, Paul. I was way too tired and hopped up on coca-cola when I wrote that. Now fixed :)
There are tons of painters in the world, but relatively few are great.
There are many actors in the world, but relatively few are gifted.
There are many, many people writing books in the world, but not many are writing books that any of us will have heard of in 10 years.
Keep in mind that blogging, like book writing, painting, and acting, has a very low barrier of entry. Anyone can do it, which means that there will be lots of folks who are just dabblers, not real contenders.
I tend to think of blogging as an art form, and as with any art, it takes years of applied practice in order to produce really groundbreaking work. Blogs and bloggers will get increasingly better and better as the years go on. Within 10 years, there will be some bloggers who will elevate this new medium of expression to a higher level.
It is not the medium that is at fault–it’s just that the medium is new and we haven’t had enough time to develop the artistry of it yet.
well put, Sharon. Blogging in ten years could likely be very different than today.